I really feel this company is going under. I love it a lot but do not see a bright future. I am sad to say.
I don't know if it will go completely under, but I think our foot print will change considerably.
If you use Google maps' satellite view (aerial) and compare our stores proximity to one another. Then compare our foot print to the closest competition along with the stores' selection. I can see a lot of consolidation and expansion (groceries) that's not even being mentioned taking place to remain competitive. In a lot of cases, our foot print is considerably smaller and puts us at a competitive disadvantage.
We'll loose some stores along the way, but Target closes about 12 stores a year on average.
I believe I read that in one of the corp. reports. So closing some stores is not a big deal unless it is done a large scale. That could trigger a lot of problems for Spot.
We are opening quite a few small foot print stores across the country over the next couple of years. I don't know how they'll do since the cost to operate them will be substantially higher given their locations and small footprints (urban areas and college campuses). We averaged about $290/sq ft in sales in 2016. I seriously doubt that would cover the cost of operating stores in an urban area given the "cost of rent". Not to mention college campuses are not year around operations either.
These stores will need to perform at a rate that is at least double that amount or better to break even IMO. That's a lot to ask given their limited offerings and traffic patterns.
Small scale stores are nothing new either. JC Penney, Montgomery Ward, Sears come to mind and they all eventually consolidated or closed them.
Walmart recently opened up quite a few and since closed a number of them due to the lack of profitability.
The biggest thing to overcome IMO is that we narrowed our selection too far and lost substantial amount of guest along the way.
To survive, Target is going to have to go back to a time where they offered more to remain competitive. If not, they'll have no choice but to reduce their foot print. We don't offer enough to justify the number of stores/sq ft. Especially with the push for online shopping.
Something will change, no doubt.